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Predictions
for the 2006 NASCAR Nextel Cup Season
By Todd
Berger, Team
LGR Staff Correspondent
Predictions for the 2006 NASCAR Nextel
Cup season
Every year, nearly every writer having
anything to do with NASCAR, be they professional or amateur, man or
woman, fan or hater, writes one of these prediction columns. Is it a
tiresome tradition? Sure. But each sports “journalist” has to
find a way to shake the dust of and get rid of the cobwebs, and I
think this is the universally accepted way to do that.
The other is to write about how to fix
NASCAR, but we won’t need to do that until that dead-ish period
around the middle of July when everyone’s out of material. Or in
week three depending upon how the racing looks.
This off-season (and last season thanks
to Busch and McMurray) had more driver changes, retirements,
additions and other moves than I remember in all my years of watching
the sport. There are no less than 25 or so driver changes,
replacements, rookies in new rides and myriad other new things to
remember that I suspect the Daytona 500 will be as much about
learning which guys are in which colors as they are rooting for
drivers in particular.
Don’t believe me? Here’s a list of
the teams that are new or have new drivers for 2006 and their
sponsor, if any.
00 – Derrike Cope ?
07 – Clint Bowyer Jack Daniels
1 – Martin Truex Jr. Bass Pro Shops
2 – Kurt Busch Miller Lite
4 – Scott Wimmer Aero Exhaust (and
possibly Lucas Oil)
10 – Scott Riggs Valvoline (was the
91 car, now with Evernham)
11 – Denny Hamlin Fed Ex
14 – Sterling Marlin (Waste
Management. Was the 10 car)
15 – Paul Menard ? (part time team)
18 – J.J. Yeley Interstate
Batteries
21 – Ken Schrader Little Debbies
22 – Dave Blaney Caterpillar
26 – Jamie McMurray Sharpie, et al.
Was the 97 car.
32 – Travis Kvapil Tide
40 – David Stremme Coor’s Light /
Lonestar
41 – Reed Sorenson Target
42 – Casey Mears Havoline
43 – Bobby Labonte Cheerios
49 – Brent Sherman Schwann’s
55 – Michael Waltrip NAPA
61 – Kevin Lepage ? (this was the 66
car)
66 – Jeff Green Best Buy (was the 0
car)
78 – Kenny Wallace Furniture row
(sharing the ride with Jerry Robertson)
92 – Chad Chaffin ?
96 – Tony Raines Texas Instruments
(will be driven by Terry Labonte early)
Add in that Rusty quit, and you’ve
got 26 new faces or new places or both. That’s going to make for a
very complicated SpeedWeeks.
Now, on to this year’s predictions.
Let’s cover the basic ones first. Who is going to win the Daytona
500?
Much that I think Tony Stewart’s
going to start his year in much better fashion than he ever has
before, I think the Fords are going to be strong on the plate tracks
this year. Combining that with some experience, I think that Greg
Biffle will probably win the great American race. My dark horse
however is the new driver of the Wood Brothers Ford, Mr. Ken
Schrader. Kenny is a great plate racer and he tends to run around
the front all day. If his car has any spunk at the end, look for him
to be in the mix.
Who will win the most races in 2006?
This is tough. I would say Jimmie
Johnson, but that team had some members go elsewhere in the
off-season and there were rampant rumors of Chad Knauss’ imminent
departure. Though they turned out to be false, it makes one wonder.
Another candidate is Mr. Stewart who, when things go right is almost
unstoppable, and Greg Biffle is also capable of going on a run like
he has in each of the last two seasons. I think Dale Earnhardt Jr.
and Tony Eury Jr. are going to surprise some folks as well.
That said, I really do think it will be
Jimmie Johnson that wins the most races. Whether he’ll win the big
trophy or not will remain to be seen.
Who will win the Rookie Of The Year
competition?
This is the biggest rookie class in
many years, and I think there will be more than the usual two
contenders for the award. The class is so talent rich that I think
this will be a good subplot to the season. Here are the candidates:
Clint Bowyer – talented, but
if Childress hasn’t made HUGE strides coming into 2007, this won’t
matter at all.
Denny Hamlin – The sports next
Cinderella story after Carl Edwards. Hamlin is a HUGE talent with a
big upside, but taking over a 2nd year team in a car that
floundered and wrecked A LOT last year will be an uphill battle.
David Stremme – I don’t get
the feeling that he’s ready for the change from Busch to Cup. This
move feels like it was more sponsor driven than owner driven.
Martin Truex Jr. – If he was
with anyone else but DEI, I’d say it was his. But DEI’s
struggled for a while and that company serves but one master: Dale
Jr. Imagine how it could be late in the season if Truex Jr. is
outperforming his boss/teammate?
Brent Sherman – Rookie in a
bad car for crazy owners. He might not finish the season.
Reed Sorenson – He’s the
other huge talent in this class, and he’s with a team that was
showing signs of life during the 2nd half of 2005. The
trouble is that the Dodge still isn’t as competitive as they’d
like it to be.
J.J. Yeley – replacing one of
the sport’s gentlemen. He’s also wrecked a LOT of cars the last
two years. I think this team’s goal should be to wreck less than
last year’s driver of the 11 car did.
I don’t think there’s a clear-cut
favorite this year, so I’ll go with my gut and say that Reed
Sorenson will win a squeaker over Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin.
Which rookie (if any) will be the first
to win a race in 2006?
I think that Reed Sorenson could be
good as early as Vegas, but he will certainly be the first to win a
race. However, he may not be the rookie with the most wins.
Next up is the “who will be the first
guy to lose his ride” question?
I think this one’s relatively easy.
Of the regular teams (which means I’m not counting Derrike Cope or
guys in that category), I suspect that Brent Sherman may very well be
gone before we get close to Charlotte in May. He’s got to be under
enormous pressure to a) perform and (possibly MORE importantly) b)
don’t tear up the cars. That’s a tough call for a rookie in a
non-competitive car. Combine that with the fact that his owner hurts
him more than helps him, and I suspect he’ll be out early, and
maybe of his own volition.
Which drivers will make the Chase for
the Championship?
This is the one that I think about most
often, and it’s the one that everyone thinks about most often, at
least the folks that write these columns. I liken it to picking you
NCAA tourney bracket, in that if you pick all the favorites you’ll
miss, if you pick all upsets you’ll miss, but you’ve got to be
able to pick the right mix of the two.
So, in no particular order, I give you
the 2006 C4C:
Tony Stewart
Jimmie Johnson
Jamie McMurray
Jeff Gordon
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Carl Edwards
Greg Biffle
Denny Hamlin
Ryan Newman
Kyle Busch
And finally, the big burrito. Who is
going to win the 2006 Nextel Cup Championship?
This could be easy and it could be
tough, but employing the KISS method, I’m going with Tony Stewart
to repeat as champion and to become only the 8th driver
with three or more titles.
That’s all for now folks. Stay tuned
in 2006 for more of my musings.
Thanks for reading.
Todd Berger
Article
copyright Todd Berger 2006 and the sole property
and opinion of Todd Berger. Published by TeamLGR.com
with permission. Contact
Todd at nascarnews@charter.net.
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January 26, 2006
November 23, 2004